Sheboygan, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

285
FXUS63 KMKX 010803
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High swim risk until early this afternoon at Lake Michigan
  beaches.

- Wildfire smoke will create persistent haze and air quality at
  unhealthy levels through at least this morning.

- More comfortable conditions continue through the weekend with
  drier air over the region.

- Humidity gradually returns early next week, along with shower
  and thunderstorm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Today and Tonight:

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. Mostly clear skies are likely
under the high through tonight along with winds generally under
10 mph much of the time. The latest HRRR smoke projection
suggests less near surface smoke today than yesterday, with
some smoke aloft lingering though. The Air Quality Advisory
issued by the Wisconsin DNR remains in effect until noon today.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal today and
again tonight.

A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect this morning due to
a high swim risk for Lake Michigan beaches in southern
Wisconsin. The latest wave forecast suggests that the high swim
risk may end a little earlier than originally anticipated,
though current winds are outperforming short term guidance. Thus
decided to leave the Beach Hazard Statement end time alone for
now.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

Synopsis: Lingering across the western Great Lakes, surface high
pressure will continue to dominate weather conditions regionally
through Sunday. Light surface winds, mostly sunny skies, and low
humidity will thus lead to continued very pleasant and comfortable
conditions through the end of the weekend. The aforementioned high
area of high pressure will slowly move into the Northeast and
Canadian Maritimes Sunday night through Monday night, resulting in
the return of south-southeast surface winds. The south-southeast
wind shift will allow temperatures, in addition to humidity, to
gradually trend upward moving into the middle portions of next week.
Despite the slowly climbing humidity, precip-free conditions are
expected to continue through at least Monday night as upper ridging
crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley. Mid-upper level height fields
will begin to fall Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in an area of
broad low pressure development in the Northern Plains. The lowest
surface pressures are progged to remain west of the area through the
conclusion of the period, global forecast guidance does depict their
gradual progression toward the Mississippi River during the mid-late
week period. Combined with falling heights aloft, the slowly-
approaching area of low pressure will support the return of shower
and storm chances during the Tuesday to Thursday time frame.
Forecast confidence remains low regarding preferred timing windows,
areas, and potential hazards in showers/storms remains low at this
time.

Tuesday Through Thursday: Shower and storm chances return to the
forecast as mid-upper height falls & surface low pressure begin to
encroach upon the region. Individual solutions from the available
global ensemble & deterministic model suite remain far apart on the
precise evolution/progression of surface features during this time
frame, making it difficult to offer additional specifics beyond
general shower/thunder potential at this time. Will continue to
watch trends through the beginning of next week, offering additional
details as solutions begin to converge.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

There will be limited aviation concerns today and tonight as
high pressure builds in from the northwest. The latest HRRR
smoke model suggests less near surface smoke over the next 24
hours than there was yesterday, with mainly VFR conditions
expected. Could see some visibilities dip below 6 SM at times
though through early this morning and again tonight due to
light winds and mostly clear skies. Northeast winds of 5 to 10
knots today will become light and variable tonight under the
high, with these lighter winds persisting into at least Sat
morning.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

High pressure of 30.4 inches will continue to build in from the
northwest today. The high will then remain parked over the
Great Lakes region through the weekend, while gradually
weakening to 30.1 inches. Breezy east to north winds this
morning will become mainly northerly across the lake by this
afternoon, except for some southerly winds in the far north. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect this morning due to the
lingering higher gusts and waves. Winds will then be light and
variable at times tonight through the weekend under the high.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060 until 10 AM Friday.

     Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 1 PM
     Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 10 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 1 PM Friday.

&&

$$

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